Saudi Arabia is demanding security assurances, assistance with its nuclear program, and a relaxation of restrictions on US arms sales before normalizing relations with Israel, according to individuals familiar with the negotiations. The crown prince’s ambitious requests offer President Biden the opportunity to broker an agreement that would fundamentally alter Israel’s relationship with the Arab world’s most powerful state, potentially satisfying his pledge to build on the Trump-era Abraham Accords, which brokered similar diplomatic deals between Israel and other Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. The deal could also strengthen regional alliances and downgrade the relative importance of the Palestinian issue. However, officials and experts in the Middle East are divided on how seriously to take the proposal, given the frosty relationship between Biden and Mohammed bin Salman. Congress may also oppose such an agreement, and Democrats have recently called for a downgrade in relations with Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia’s Demands
In exchange for normalizing relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia is demanding three concessions from the United States, according to people familiar with the negotiations:
Security guarantees: Riyadh is looking for a security guarantee from the US that includes the help of the United States military in the event of an external attack.
Civilian nuclear program: Saudi Arabia wants assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program. However, the US has long been hesitant to allow Saudi Arabia to establish a civilian nuclear program, fearing it may be a first step toward the creation of a nuclear weapon.
Fewer restrictions on US arms sales: The Saudi government is requesting fewer restrictions on US arms sales.
Implications of an Agreement
If an agreement is reached, it could dramatically alter the Middle Eastern political landscape. Normalization with Saudi Arabia would be a significant accomplishment for Israel, potentially satisfying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of increasing Israel’s security against Iran. An agreement could also fulfill Biden’s promise to build on the Abraham Accords, potentially altering Israel’s relationship with the broader Arab world. However, Biden may encounter resistance in Congress, where many Democrats have pushed to downgrade relations with Saudi Arabia.
Analysis and Reactions
Officials and experts in the United States and the Middle East are divided on how seriously to take the proposal, given the frosty relationship between Biden and Mohammed bin Salman. According to Martin Indyk, a former US ambassador to Israel in the Clinton administration, “It’s interesting for a number of reasons…Mr. Netanyahu ‘wants it badly, and he can only get it with Biden’s help…That creates a situation where Biden has leverage over Netanyahu to persuade him that nothing good can happen with Saudi Arabia if he allows the situation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem to explode.'”
Congress may also oppose such an agreement, and Democrats have recently called for a downgrade in relations with Saudi Arabia. Senator Christopher S. Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut and a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, has stated that “Our relationship with Saudi Arabia has to be a direct bilateral relationship…It should not run through Israel.”
A spokesperson for the National Security Council has declined to comment on diplomatic discussions but said the Biden administration supports closer ties between Israel and its Middle Eastern neighbors, including Saudi Arabia.
